Aston Villa may have begun the season with consecutive WSL victories, but after losing their last two league games, we think that they will be beaten comfortably by a Chelsea side who have won their last six matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 89.17%. A draw had a probability of 7.9% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 2.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 4-0 (10.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.74%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 0-1 (1.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.

Result
Chelsea Women	Draw	Aston Villa Women
89.17% ( 0.04)	7.87% ( -0.03)	2.96% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 38.34% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.09% (

0.08)

26.91% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.62% (

0.11)

47.38% (

-0.11)

Chelsea Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.28% (

0.02)

3.72% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

84.03% (

0.06)

15.97% (

-0.06)

Aston Villa Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

39.82%

60.18% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

9.26% (

90.74% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Chelsea Women 89.15%

Aston Villa Women 2.96%

Draw 7.87%

Chelsea Women	Draw	Aston Villa Women
3-0 @ 13.3% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 10.94% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.76% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.16% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 7-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0) 7-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 3.26% Total : 89.15%	1-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 1.56% ( -0) Other @ 0.32% Total : 7.87%	0-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 2.96%