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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 5
Sep 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 4
Connah's Quay


Thomas (37'), Austin (61'), Donohue (71'), Gosset (75')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Poole (10'), Kenny (55'), Davies (70' pen.), Edwards (77')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay Nomads.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 1-1 Bala Town
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Connah's Quay 3-1 Newtown
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
39.33% (0.151 0.15) 24.93% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03) 35.73% (-0.121 -0.12)
Both teams to score 57.9% (0.101 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.56% (0.137 0.14)45.43% (-0.139 -0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.23% (0.129 0.13)67.76% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.05% (0.137 0.14)22.94% (-0.14 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.28% (0.203 0.2)56.72% (-0.205 -0.2)
Connah's Quay Nomads Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.14% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)24.86% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.53% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)59.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 39.33%
    Connah's Quay Nomads 35.73%
    Draw 24.92%
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
2-1 @ 8.6% (0.019 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.4% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.18% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.22% (0.026 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.03% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.12% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.08% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 39.33%
1-1 @ 11.68% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.99% (0.012 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.7% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.36% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.92%
1-2 @ 8.13% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.94% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-2 @ 5.53% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-3 @ 3.77% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.78% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.56% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 35.73%

Head to Head
Nov 18, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Connah's Quay
3-3
Caernarfon
Nash (69'), Malkin (74', 90+4')
O'Rourke (10'), Faux (50'), Marsh-Hughes (65')
Sep 27, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Caernarfon
0-2
Connah's Quay
Stratulis (70'), Edwards (90+1')
Nov 9, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Caernarfon
0-1
Connah's Quay

Hughes (23'), Donohue (53'), Simpson (79')
Hughes (90+2')
Eardley (68')
Harrington (64')
Aug 31, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Connah's Quay
1-1
Caernarfon
Disney (50')
Curran (32'), Owens (70')
Thomas (28')
Hughes (45+3'), Gosset (71')
May 8, 2021 5.15pm
Gameweek 6
Connah's Quay
4-0
Caernarfon
Insall (10'), Williams (69'), Morris (77', 90+2')
Wilde (37')

Hayes (77'), Mendes (83')
Brass (67')
rhs 2.0
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