Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 62.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Atlas had a probability of 16.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for an Atlas win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.