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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 9
Sep 27, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 2
Connah's Quay


Donohue (50'), Hughes (57')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Stratulis (70'), Edwards (90+1')
Nash (33'), Franklin (87'), Wilde (89')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay Nomads.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Clyde 1-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, September 24 at 3pm in Scottish Challenge Cup

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Last Game: Connah's Quay 1-0 Pontypridd
Saturday, September 24 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 56.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 20.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
20.81% (0.555 0.56) 22.67% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05) 56.51% (-0.503 -0.5)
Both teams to score 54.02% (1.031 1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.72% (0.95200000000001 0.95)45.28% (-0.953 -0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.38% (0.905 0.91)67.62% (-0.904 -0.9)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.17% (1.104 1.1)35.82% (-1.104 -1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.4% (1.117 1.12)72.6% (-1.117 -1.12)
Connah's Quay Nomads Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.18% (0.16200000000001 0.16)15.82% (-0.162 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.01% (0.297 0.3)44.99% (-0.298 -0.3)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 20.81%
    Connah's Quay Nomads 56.51%
    Draw 22.67%
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
1-0 @ 5.82% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-1 @ 5.51% (0.136 0.14)
2-0 @ 2.99% (0.057 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.88% (0.101 0.1)
3-2 @ 1.74% (0.102 0.1)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 20.81%
1-1 @ 10.72% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 5.67% (-0.235 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.152 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.069 0.07)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.67%
0-1 @ 10.45% (-0.37 -0.37)
1-2 @ 9.89% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.64% (-0.287 -0.29)
1-3 @ 6.08% (0.037 0.04)
0-3 @ 5.92% (-0.143 -0.14)
2-3 @ 3.12% (0.111 0.11)
1-4 @ 2.8% (0.032 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.73% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.44% (0.058 0.06)
1-5 @ 1.03% (0.017 0.02)
0-5 @ 1.01% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 56.51%

Head to Head
Nov 9, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-1
Connah's Quay

Hughes (23'), Donohue (53'), Simpson (79')
Hughes (90+2')
Eardley (68')
Harrington (64')
Aug 31, 2021 7.45pm
Connah's Quay
1-1
Caernarfon
Disney (50')
Curran (32'), Owens (70')
Thomas (28')
Hughes (45+3'), Gosset (71')
May 8, 2021 5.15pm
Connah's Quay
4-0
Caernarfon
Insall (10'), Williams (69'), Morris (77', 90+2')
Wilde (37')

Hayes (77'), Mendes (83')
Brass (67')
Apr 13, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-6
Connah's Quay
Bickerstaff (24')
Edwards (31')
Poole (16'), Wilde (32'), Jones (54' og.), Davies (73', 90'), Horan (79')
Nov 13, 2020 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-2
Connah's Quay
Edwards (55')
Hayes (33'), (86'), (90+8'), (90+8')
Bradley (90+4')
Wilde (75'), Morris (90+2' pen.)
(76'), (85')
Brass (90+9'), Roberts (90+9')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont18124235122340
2The New SaintsNew Saints18130550222839
3Cardiff MUCardiff MU199462922731
4Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest188642091130
5Bala TownBala Town1961032619728
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon198472830-228
7Barry Town UnitedBarry198473035-528
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay186572419523
9Newtown AFCNewtown185492238-1619
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1952122337-1417
11Briton Ferry1842122338-1514
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1941141746-2913
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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