Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 45.98%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 28.04% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.