Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.