Defensor

2 - 1

Penarol

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.