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Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
Jun 30, 2024 at 3.30am UK
Providence Park
Minnesota United

Portland
3 - 2
Minnesota Utd

Evander (45+8' pen.), Moreno (73'), Rodriguez (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Hlongwane (29'), Sang-bin (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Portland Timbers and Minnesota United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Portland 2-0 Vancouver
Sunday, June 23 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Minnesota Utd 0-1 Austin
Sunday, June 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Portland Timbers 2-0 Minnesota United

While Minnesota United still sit above their hosts in the Conference standings, the two sides' momentum has shifted with the Timbers gaining confidence and the visitors' struggling form. Having lost some of their confidence without Oluwaseyi's goals, we see the Loons succumbing to a quickly improving Portland Timbers team in Oregon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 55.06%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 23.34% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.

Result
Portland TimbersDrawMinnesota United
55.06% (-0.317 -0.32) 21.6% (0.127 0.13) 23.34% (0.186 0.19)
Both teams to score 61.33% (-0.22199999999999 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.73% (-0.398 -0.4)37.27% (0.394 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.52% (-0.42899999999999 -0.43)59.48% (0.425 0.43)
Portland Timbers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.44% (-0.23200000000001 -0.23)13.55% (0.228 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.36% (-0.46 -0.46)40.64% (0.456 0.46)
Minnesota United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.95% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)29.04% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.04% (-0.086000000000006 -0.09)64.95% (0.081000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Portland Timbers 55.06%
    Minnesota United 23.34%
    Draw 21.6%
Portland TimbersDrawMinnesota United
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.87% (0.084 0.08)
2-0 @ 7.86% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.48% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.24% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
3-2 @ 4% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 3.24% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-0 @ 2.62% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-2 @ 2% (-0.037 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.29% (-0.033 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.05% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 55.06%
1-1 @ 9.73% (0.086 0.09)
2-2 @ 6.01% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.94% (0.075 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.65% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 21.6%
1-2 @ 6.01% (0.042 0.04)
0-1 @ 4.87% (0.084 0.08)
0-2 @ 3.01% (0.046 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.48% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.48% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.24% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 23.34%

How you voted: Portland vs Minnesota Utd

Portland Timbers
81.3%
Draw
0.0%
Minnesota United
18.8%
16
Head to Head
May 19, 2024 1.30am
Minnesota Utd
2-1
Portland
Lod (65'), Sang-bin (82')
Tapias (42'), Sang-bin (90+8'), Trapp (90+13')
Tapias (90+1')
Rodriguez (17')
Rodriguez (42'), Evander (44'), Araujo (67'), Chara (67'), Asprilla (82')
Jul 2, 2023 1.30am
Minnesota Utd
4-1
Portland
Chara (43' og.), Reynoso (45+4', 77'), Hlongwane (74')
Tapias (13'), Heath (14'), Boxall (16'), Dotson (21'), Taylor (34'), Reynoso (73')
Boli (60')
Paredes (90+1')
May 21, 2023 3.30am
Portland
0-1
Minnesota Utd

McGraw (63'), Bravo (67'), Zuparic (84')
Hlongwane (90+5')
Boxall (82'), Hlongwane (90+5')
Jul 30, 2022 8pm
Minnesota Utd
4-4
Portland
Fragapane (9'), Hlongwane (21'), Amarilla (41', 69')
Boxall (53'), Arriaga (72'), Benitez (75'), Reynoso (90'), Lod (90+3')
Blanco (1', 50'), Niezgoda (53'), Lawrence (65' og.)
Chara (18'), Chara (63'), Ayala (73'), Asprilla (83')
rhs 2.0
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