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Championship | Gameweek 27
Jan 18, 2025 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Watford logo

Derby
vs.
Watford

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Watford
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Championship

We say: Derby County 2-2 Watford

On paper, Watford should be the stronger side, having picked up 11 more points than the Rams, but they have struggled to produce their best form on the road this season, and with that in mind, we think that they will be held to a draw in Saturday's meeting at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 50.83%. A draw has a probability of 24.8% and a win for Watford has a probability of 24.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Watford win it is 0-1 (7.3%).

Result
Derby CountyDrawWatford
50.83% (-0.654 -0.65) 24.8% (0.26 0.26) 24.36% (0.391 0.39)
Both teams to score 51.79% (-0.381 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.55% (-0.713 -0.71)50.45% (0.712 0.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.62% (-0.635 -0.64)72.38% (0.633 0.63)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.15% (-0.54300000000001 -0.54)19.85% (0.541 0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.06% (-0.883 -0.88)51.94% (0.881 0.88)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.61% (-0.041000000000011 -0.04)35.39% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.85% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)72.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 50.82%
    Watford 24.36%
    Draw 24.8%
Derby CountyDrawWatford
1-0 @ 11.35% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
2-0 @ 9.18% (-0.046000000000001 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.14% (-0.12 -0.12)
3-0 @ 4.95% (-0.11 -0.11)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.066 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.08% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-0 @ 2% (-0.08 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.045 -0.04)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 50.82%
1-1 @ 11.79% (0.12 0.12)
0-0 @ 7.02% (0.2 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.96% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.8%
0-1 @ 7.3% (0.199 0.2)
1-2 @ 6.13% (0.058 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.79% (0.099 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.12% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.015 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.31% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 2%
Total : 24.36%

Who will win Saturday's Championship clash between Derby and Watford?

Derby County
Draw
Watford
Derby County
47.8%
Draw
39.1%
Watford
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 3
Watford
2-1
Derby
Issouf Bayo (31'), Sissoko (76')
Chakvetadze (45'), Rajovic (89')
Adams (2')
Adams (50'), Bradley (89'), Nelson (90+5')
Feb 19, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 31
Watford
2-1
Derby
Pedro (19'), Hughes (21')
Hughes (20'), Cleverley (42')
Troost-Ekong (77' og.)
Buchanan (45'), Byrne (90+1')
Oct 16, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Derby
0-1
Watford

Evans (58')
Pedro (76')
Wilmot (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds26158348192953
2Burnley27141123192253
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd26166436171952
4Sunderland27149439221751
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn2612683123842
6Middlesbrough26118743321141
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom26913432211140
8Watford26115103637-138
9Bristol City2691073330337
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds2610793840-237
11Norwich CityNorwich269984337636
12Swansea CitySwansea2697103030034
13Queens Park RangersQPR2671182934-532
14Millwall257992423130
15Preston North EndPreston2661282834-630
16Coventry CityCoventry2678113437-329
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2678112941-1229
18Derby CountyDerby2676133135-427
19Stoke CityStoke2669112432-827
20Luton TownLuton2674152744-1725
21Cardiff CityCardiff2659122641-1524
22Hull City2658132536-1123
23Portsmouth2558123044-1423
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2649132554-2921


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