We say: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa
Arsenal's beating of Spurs in midweek might have been merited, but the lack of a clinical striker is still sticking out like a sore thumb, and they may not create such a large volume of chances against a more defensively-sound Aston Villa outfit.
The Gunners should not be in any danger of losing their unbeaten home league record, but Emery's in-form side are more than capable of taking a point back to Villa Park as Arsenal are sent crashing back down to earth.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 71.22%. A draw has a probability of 17.2% and a win for Aston Villa has a probability of 11.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win is 2-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.13%), while for an Aston Villa win it is 0-1 (3.46%).