Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 69.14%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 12.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.83%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
Result | ||
Rio Ave | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
12.78% ( 0.48) | 18.07% ( 0.19) | 69.14% ( -0.67) |
Both teams to score 52.01% ( 0.84) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.79% ( 0.34) | 39.2% ( -0.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.46% ( 0.36) | 61.53% ( -0.36) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.96% ( 0.98) | 42.04% ( -0.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.53% ( 0.84) | 78.47% ( -0.84) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.73% ( -0.07) | 10.27% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.35% ( -0.17) | 33.64% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Rio Ave | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.45% Total : 12.78% | 1-1 @ 8.52% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.12% Total : 18.07% | 0-2 @ 11.18% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 8.48% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 7.35% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 4.83% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 4.18% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.09) 0-5 @ 2.2% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.5% Total : 69.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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