Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 53.45%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 22.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.