Serie A | Gameweek 21
Jan 18, 2025 at 5pm UK
Allianz Stadium
Juventus2 - 0AC Milan
We said: Juventus 1-0 AC Milan
After a dull goalless draw in the league earlier this season - and an eventful encounter in the Supercoppa Italiana - it might be a one-goal game on Saturday. Both sides have several flaws - as evidenced by their modest placing in the table - but Juve's solid defence can frustrate most teams, and they may finally hang on to a lead. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Juventus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Juventus | Draw | AC Milan |
40.28% ( 0.35) | 25.74% ( 0.09) | 33.98% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 54.77% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
