Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 14.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9%), while for a St Louis City win it was 0-1 (4.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | St Louis City |
66.89% ( 1.88) | 19.07% ( -0.21) | 14.04% ( -1.67) |
Both teams to score 52.15% ( -3.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.15% ( -2.62) | 40.85% ( 2.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.77% ( -2.73) | 63.23% ( 2.73) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.69% ( -0.26) | 11.31% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.05% ( -0.57) | 35.95% ( 0.57) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.8% ( -3.88) | 41.2% ( 3.88) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.27% ( -3.63) | 77.73% ( 3.63) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | St Louis City |
2-0 @ 11.06% ( 1.06) 1-0 @ 10.15% ( 1.07) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.69) 3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.34) 4-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.41) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.24) 5-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.93% Total : 66.88% | 1-1 @ 9% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.51) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.12% Total : 19.07% | 0-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.42) 0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.31) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.27) Other @ 1.62% Total : 14.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |