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League One
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League One | Gameweek 30
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Bird (60'), Collins (81')
Wilson (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Sercombe (50')
Freestone (55'), Long (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 1-0 Derby
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Cheltenham Town

 Keen to bounce back to winning ways against a resilient Cheltenham Town side who are fighting for their third-tier status, Derby County face a difficult test on Saturday but should have the quality to come out on top at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
72.25% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03) 16.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 10.82% (0.016 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.5% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)39.13% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)61.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)9.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.14% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)31.86% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.69% (0.022000000000006 0.02)45.31% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.82% (0.016000000000002 0.02)81.18% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 72.24%
    Cheltenham Town 10.82%
    Draw 16.93%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 11.92%
1-0 @ 10.13%
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 9.36% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.51% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.59% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.73%
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 72.24%
1-1 @ 8.02% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 3.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 16.93%
0-1 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
1-2 @ 3.18% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.35% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 10.82%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 12
Cheltenham
1-1
Derby
Street (39')
Bradbury (70')
Nelson (45+7')
Feb 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
2-0
Cheltenham
McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 27
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122
> League One Full Table


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