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Championship header 2

League One
Lincoln City
League One | Gameweek 29
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
LNER Stadium
Derby logo

Lincoln
0 - 0
Derby


Taylor (68'), Draper (68')
FT

Elder (18'), Wilson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Lincoln City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-2 Burton Albion
Monday, January 15 at 8pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 1-2 Derby County

 Derby have won each of their last five away trips, and we think that they will continue that run of form against a Lincoln side that has lost four of their previous five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 17.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
17.08% (0.041 0.04) 22.59% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 60.33% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Both teams to score 47.84% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.24% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)72.19% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.12% (0.050999999999995 0.05)42.88% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.81% (0.042999999999999 0.04)79.19% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.75% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.24% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)45.77% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 17.08%
    Derby County 60.32%
    Draw 22.59%
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.28% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 17.08%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.59%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 11.5% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-4 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-5 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 60.32%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Derby

Lincoln City
46.2%
Draw
7.7%
Derby County
46.2%
13
Head to Head
Dec 21, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Derby
3-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')
Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')
> Preview
Sep 19, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Derby
2-0
Lincoln
Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

Duffy (53')
Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Derby
1-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (69')
Shodipo (43')
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Lincoln
2-0
Derby
Diamond (12' pen.), House (68')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham25176243182557
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe27167452282455
3Wrexham27157539211852
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield26146639221748
5Stockport CountyStockport27128742281444
6Barnsley2712694037342
7Leyton Orient26125934221241
8Reading2612594038241
9Bolton WanderersBolton27125104041-141
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2611783226640
11Lincoln CityLincoln2710893431338
12Mansfield TownMansfield25114103431337
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham2697103030034
14Blackpool2681083738-134
15Stevenage259792022-234
16Wigan AthleticWigan2696112626033
17Exeter CityExeter2795133036-632
18Bristol Rovers2684142541-1628
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2776144352-927
20Northampton TownNorthampton2769122440-1627
21Burton Albion2749142742-1521
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2656152747-2021
23Crawley TownCrawley2556142546-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2655162646-2020
> League One Full Table


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