Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morpeth Town win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for AFC Emley had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morpeth Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.58%) and 2-0 (4.84%). The likeliest AFC Emley win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morpeth Town would win this match.