Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for FC Ufa had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a FC Ufa win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.