Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 47.38%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Desportivo das Aves had a probability of 25.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Desportivo das Aves win it was 0-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.