Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Glenavon win with a probability of 51.57%. A win for Dungannon Swifts had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Glenavon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Dungannon Swifts win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Glenavon would win this match.