Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 62.45%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Dungannon Swifts had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Dungannon Swifts win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.