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World Cup
Bahrain national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Sep 10, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watanī
Japan national football team

Bahrain
0 - 5
Japan


Al Khatal (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ueda (37' pen., 47'), Morita (61', 64'), Ogawa (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's AFC World Cup Qualifying clash between Bahrain and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahrain

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Australia 0-1 Bahrain
Thursday, September 5 at 11.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Japan

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Japan 7-0 China
Thursday, September 5 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Bahrain 0-3 Japan

 Despite a stunning victory on the road last week, lightning is unlikely to strike twice for Bahrain here, as Japan's might may well be too much for them to handle. A 7-0 win over China on matchday one for Japan has set the standard in this group, and Moriyasu's men are resounding favourites to make it two from two. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Bahrain had a probability of 21.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bahrain win it was 2-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
BahrainDrawJapan
21.77% (0.239 0.24) 22.54% (0.099 0.1) 55.68% (-0.335 -0.34)
Both teams to score 55.88% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.5% (-0.152 -0.15)43.5% (0.155 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.11% (-0.151 -0.15)65.89% (0.15300000000001 0.15)
Bahrain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.11% (0.13800000000001 0.14)33.89% (-0.137 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.44% (0.147 0.15)70.56% (-0.145 -0.14)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.52% (-0.164 -0.16)15.48% (0.167 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.64% (-0.309 -0.31)44.36% (0.312 0.31)
Score Analysis
    Bahrain 21.77%
    Japan 55.68%
    Draw 22.54%
BahrainDrawJapan
2-1 @ 5.73% (0.048 0.05)
1-0 @ 5.68% (0.059 0.06)
2-0 @ 3.07% (0.043 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.07% (0.025 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.93% (0.012 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.11% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 21.77%
1-1 @ 10.59% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.35% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.25% (0.035 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.2% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 9.88% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 9.79% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.13% (-0.043000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 6.14% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
0-3 @ 5.68% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-3 @ 3.32% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.87% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-4 @ 2.65% (-0.043 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.55% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.07% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-5 @ 0.99% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 55.68%

How you voted: Bahrain vs Japan

Bahrain
10.3%
Draw
10.3%
Japan
79.4%
68
Head to Head
Jan 31, 2024 11.30am
Round of 16
Bahrain
1-3
Japan
Ueda (64' og.)
Yusuf (52'), Al Hayam (79')
Doan (31'), Kubo (49'), Ueda (72')
Maikuma (57')
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