Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 50.33%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.