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La Liga | Gameweek 16
Dec 10, 2023 at 1pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Almeria

Atletico
2 - 1
Almeria

Morata (17'), Correa (22')
Koke (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Baptistao (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barbastro 1-0 Almeria
Wednesday, December 6 at 11am in Copa del Rey

We said: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Almeria

It would be one of the biggest surprises of the season if Almeria were able to pick up a positive result on Sunday, and we just cannot see the visitors avoiding defeat. Atletico will be aiming to bounce back from their loss to Barcelona and should have far too much quality for their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.14%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAlmeria
71.03% (0.18300000000001 0.18) 16.83% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06) 12.14% (-0.124 -0.12)
Both teams to score 54.65% (-0.187 -0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.18% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)34.82% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.21% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)56.79% (0.041000000000004 0.04)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.32% (0.030999999999992 0.03)8.68% (-0.032900000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.1% (0.075000000000003 0.08)29.9% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.84% (-0.226 -0.23)40.15% (0.222 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.21% (-0.207 -0.21)76.79% (0.20400000000001 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 71.03%
    Almeria 12.14%
    Draw 16.83%
Atletico MadridDrawAlmeria
2-0 @ 10.41% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.5% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.52% (0.029 0.03)
3-0 @ 8.48% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 7.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 5.18% (0.041 0.04)
4-1 @ 4.73% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.53% (-0.021 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.53% (0.024 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.31% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.05% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
6-0 @ 1.03% (0.012 0.01)
6-1 @ 0.94% (0.0039999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 71.03%
1-1 @ 7.77% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.33% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 16.83%
1-2 @ 3.55% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-1 @ 3.18% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.45% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.08% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 12.14%

How you voted: Atletico vs Almeria

Atletico Madrid
Draw
Almeria
Atletico Madrid
94.4%
Draw
5.6%
Almeria
0.0%
36
Head to Head
Apr 16, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 29
Atletico
2-1
Almeria
Griezmann (5', 43')
Baptistao (37')
Jan 15, 2023 3.15pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona26183571254657
2Real Madrid27176457263157
3Atletico MadridAtletico27168344182656
4Athletic Bilbao271310445242149
5Villarreal26128648361244
6Real BetisBetis2711883533241
7Mallorca27107102633-737
8Rayo Vallecano279992929036
9Celta Vigo27106114041-136
10Sevilla279993236-436
11Real Sociedad27104132328-534
12Getafe2789102322133
13GironaGirona2796123540-533
14Osasuna2671273237-533
15Espanyol2677122537-1228
16AlavesAlaves2869133242-1027
17Valencia2769123045-1527
18Leganes2769122440-1627
19Las PalmasLas Palmas2867153247-1525
20Real ValladolidValladolid2744191862-4416


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