Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Castellon win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Hercules had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Castellon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Hercules win was 1-0 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Castellon would win this match.