Adelaide United play host to Western Sydney Wanderers on Thursday knowing that they will qualify for the A-League Finals Series if they can avoid defeat at the Coopers Stadium.
Despite sitting in seventh position, Wanderers can still progress through to the Finals if they end the regular season with three points.
Match preview
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While Adelaide are on the brink of earning a spot in the top six, the fact that they now have a negative goal difference tells you everything about their recent form.
Nevertheless, despite claiming just three victories from their most recent 12 fixtures, Carl Veart's side are close to making up for the disappointment experienced after last season's seventh-placed finish.
Brisbane Roar are in prime position to demote Adelaide down to sixth, but Veart will be fully focused on the task in front of his team after a below-par two months.
Being thoroughly outplayed by rivals Sydney FC on Saturday could prove to be a blessing in disguise, that game highlighting how far off the pace Adelaide have been for some time.
Despite the four-goal capitulation, Veart will still try to take encouragement from four clean sheets being recorded from seven contests.
As far as Western Sydney are concerned, three successive defeats appeared to put Carl Robinson's team out of contention for the top six.
However, the 2-0 triumph over Brisbane Roar has given Wanderers every chance of qualifying for the FFA Cup and an outside opportunity to conclude the campaign in the Finals.
Like their hosts, Wanderers have struggled since the start of April, relying on five home wins to avoid finishing lower than 10th position.
Six matches have now come and gone without success on their travels, something which must change on Thursday to prevent Robinson's first season ending on a sour note.
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Team News
Veart will be forced into at least one change to his Adelaide XI after ever-present Jordan Elsey was sent off in the last fixture.
George Timotheou is likely to deputise in the middle of the backline, but youngster Yaya Dukuly may have to be content with a spot among the replacements despite netting as a late substitute against Sydney.
On the back of their triumph over Roar, Robinson is expected to keep alterations to his Wanderers starting lineup down to a minimum.
Having been introduced as a half-time substitute, Tate Russell is in line to replace Daniel Wilmering at left wing-back in what should be the only change to the team.
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Strain, Timotheou, Jakobsen, Kitto; Lopez, Cavallo; Halloran, Mauk, Goodwin; Toure
Western Sydney Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Margush; Aquilina, Gordon, McGowan, Mourdoukoutas, Russell; Ugarkovic, Dorrans, Baccus; Ibini-Isei, Kamau
We say: Adelaide United 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers
Given what is at stake, we do not expect Adelaide to come out looking for three points. Nevertheless, the home side should have enough quality to do what is required, subsequently ending Western Sydney's campaign in the process.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 49.61%. A win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Western Sydney Wanderers win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
