Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Villa Espanola had a probability of 19.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Villa Espanola win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.