Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.