Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 49.14%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 24.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 1-0 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.