Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 46.72%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.