Wellington Phoenix and Perth Glory square off on Sunday knowing that victory could make all the difference in their bid to qualify for the A-League Finals.
While eighth-placed Glory sit two points adrift of their hosts, they possess a game in hand on many of the teams above them in the table.
Match preview
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Each of these teams have spent much of the season in the bottom half of the table, seemingly destined to finish closer to last position than mid-table.
However, Phoenix and Glory are currently the two form teams in the A-League, putting them in contention to earn a surprise place in the Finals Series.
Facing a two-point deficit with two matches remaining, Phoenix are under no illusions that they must extend their winning streak to three games if they want to gatecrash the top six.
While Glory are four points adrift of Macarthur, Richard Garcia's side have an extra game to play, and three more victories in a row could prove enough to claim the last qualifying spot.
That said, they face opponents in Phoenix who have put together a nine-match unbeaten run, collecting over half of their points for the season during that period.
Former Celtic and Brighton & Hove Albion forward Tomer Hemed has emerged as the team's key man, netting seven goals from his last 10 appearances.
Glory have spent a large chunk of the campaign in 10th position, but picking up 13 points from just five fixtures has moved the club to within touching distance of seventh.
Garcia and his squad have benefitted from each of those games being played at HBF Park and they now possess the third-best home record in the league.
However, they remain with just eight points from 10 away fixtures, putting the pressure on Bruno Fornaroli and Joel Chianese to continue their strong form in the final third.
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Team News
With Reno Piscopo expected to miss out through injury, Jaushua Sotirio is likely to be drafted into the Phoenix starting lineup.
James McGarry and Alex Rufer will also be considered for recalls, but Ufuk Talay could stick with the remainder of the team which beat Western Sydney Wanderers.
Having had a week to prepare for this contest, Garcia may opt against making any changes to his in-form Glory XI.
Despite netting the fourth goal of his short stay, Chianese is unlikely to earn a spot in the team given that seven of his nine outings have come from the substitutes' bench.
Andy Keogh should retain his place on the back of netting four times against Western Sydney earlier this month.
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Sail; Fenton, Taylor, Payne, Sutton; Ball, Devlin, Lewis, Sotirio; Waine, Hemed
Perth Glory possible starting lineup:
Reddy; Geria, Aspropotamitis, Lachman; Ikonomidis, Malik, Timmins, Ota; Fornaroli, Castro, Keogh
We say: Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Perth Glory
Both teams will feel that a draw is not enough, meaning that we could see an entertaining encounter between two motivated teams. Despite Glory's recent form, we feel that home advantage could prove key, leading us to back a narrow win for Phoenix.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
