Moreirense entertain Braga in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Monday evening as both teams aim to extend their two-game unbeaten runs.
The hosts were held to a 2-2 draw by Portimonense last time out, while Carlos Carvalhal's men defeated Santa Clara in the Taca de Portugal quarter-finals.
Match preview
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Os Verdes e Brancos have picked up five points from a possible nine in recent weeks to maintain their solid start to the campaign.
Vasco Seabra's side are currently sitting in seventh position in the Primeira Liga standings after collecting 18 points from their opening 15 encounters.
However, despite their lofty status, Moreirense are only five points above Gil Vicente, who occupy the relegation playoff place; such is the tight and congested nature of the Portuguese top flight this season.
The success that they have had in 2020-21 has been built on solid foundations, as Seabra's men have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net.
Their 13-goal haul means they are the lowest scorers in the top half of the table and, even more concerningly, means the two teams in the relegation zone have found the back of the net more frequently.
If Moreirense want to maintain their seventh-placed position, then they will surely have to start scoring on a more regular basis sooner rather than later.
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Braga have bounced back well from their disappointing defeat in the Taca da Liga final at the hands of league-leaders Sporting Lisbon.
Since the 1-0 loss in the showpiece event, Carvalhal's side have put back-to-back wins together to maintain their push for European football and some silverware this season.
Os Arcebispos have been a mixed bag in 2020-21, with their away form seriously hampering their progress in the Primeira Liga.
The Estadio Municipal de Braga outfit are yet to draw a domestic match this season, and four of their five league defeats have come on the road, as Carvalhal is yet to find the recipe for success when his team are on their travels.
Addressing their plight away from home on Monday may be a tough ask for Braga, though, who come up against a side who have only lost once at the Estadio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas all season.
Moreirense Primeira Liga form: DWLDWD
Moreirense form (all competitions): WLDLWD
Braga Primeira Liga form: WWLWLW
Braga form (all competitions): WLWLWW
Team News
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Full-back Pedro Amador and attacking midfielder Pedro Nuno are long-term absentees for Moreirense, with the pair continuing to suffer from cruciate ligament injuries.
They are joined on the treatment table by Sori Mane, Andre Luis and Derik Lacerda, who are all unavailable for the visit of Braga.
Carvalhal has no fresh injury concerns to contend with, meaning Paulinho could lead the attack once again after making his first start for several weeks against Gil Vicente.
Centre-forward Rui Fonte and 21-year-old left-back Francisco Moura are still sidelined with cruciate ligament injuries, though, and are some way off from returning to first-team action.
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Silva, Vitoria, Ferraresi, Figueiredo; Camara, A. Soares; Yan, F. Soares, Walterson; Rafael
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Tormena, Carmo, Sequeira; Esgaio, Fransergio, Elmusrati, Galeno; Medeiros, Paulinho, Horta
We say: Moreirense 2-1 Braga
Although Braga are the better team on paper, their away form has been poor this season and Moreirense have been strong at home. Seabra's side will fancy their chances on Monday, and we back them to get the job done after a closely fought contest.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52.83%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
