Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 45.04%. A win for Chateauroux had a probability of 28.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (8.49%). The likeliest Chateauroux win was 1-0 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.