A six-pointer at the foot of the Ligue 1 table takes place at the Stade Gaston-Gerard on Sunday afternoon as 19th-placed Dijon go head-to-head with basement side Nimes.
Both teams saw their Coupe de France journeys end at the first hurdle in midweek and cannot rise above the dotted line with a win, but the importance of three points this weekend cannot be understated.
Match preview
© Reuters
Even with a raft of changes, a second-string Lille team shut up shop against a Dijon outfit boasting several first-team regulars in the Coupe de France, and Aguibou Camara's first-half winner was enough to send David Linares's men packing on Wednesday evening.
That narrow defeat on home soil represented Dijon's fifth loss on the bounce across all competitions, and while Les Hiboux have become synonymous with low-scoring affairs since Linares took over, they saw their defence breached four times by Montpellier HSC in last weekend's crushing defeat.
With only one win to show from their last 12 in the top flight - a 3-1 triumph at Nimes on December 23 - Dijon's survival prospects are thinning by the week, and they are now seven points adrift of safety following Lorient's sudden resurgence in form.
Furthermore, both of Les Hiboux' Ligue 1 victories this season have come on the road, and they are one of only two teams in the top five European leagues yet to march to victory on their own turf this season - the other being Serie A strugglers Torino - having drawn six and lost six at the Stade Gaston-Gerard so far.
The Dijon faithful will be praying that the loan signing of Aboubakar Kamara will bear fruit on the attacking front, as Linares's side have failed to score in seven of their last eight home matches in the top flight and can only boast a quartet of strikes at the Stade Gaston-Gerard all season - unsurprisingly the worst record in the division.
Nimes are hardly in a better spot themselves, although they managed to find the back of the net three times against title-chasing Monaco last weekend after Jerome Arpinon's sacking was confirmed.
However, their trio of strikes ended up proving futile as an Aleksandr Golovin-inspired Monaco came up trumps 4-3 in that meeting - a result which condemned Les Crocodiles to their third league defeat on the bounce before Wednesday's equally-dampening cup defeat to Nice.
Pascal Plancque has the best part of two months to preserve Nimes' Ligue 1 status after replacing Arpinon at the helm, and while the seven-goal thriller against Monaco was encouraging from an attacking point of view, their defensive problems must be addressed sooner rather than later.
Nimes - who are level with Dijon on 15 points having played a game fewer - have already shipped a league-high 51 goals this term, and the visitors' rearguard has also been breached 20 times in their last seven away matches, with five of those games ending in defeat.
Dijon managed to overcome their relegation rivals 3-1 earlier in the season - which was their first ever Ligue 1 victory over Nimes - but Les Crocodiles have kept clean sheets in their other four top-flight matches against their opponents since 2018.
Dijon Ligue 1 form: DDLLLL
Dijon form (all competitions): DLLLLL
Nimes Ligue 1 form: LLWLLL
Nimes form (all competitions): LWLLLL
Team News
Dijon centre-back Senou Coulibaly opened the scoring before seeing red against Monaco, and the 26-year-old is set to be replaced by Jonathan Panzo for this crunch match.
Roger Assale and Yassine Benzia remain injured for the hosts, who are set to welcome Anthony Racioppi, Bruno Ecuele Manga, Ngonda Muzinga and Sacha Boey back to the rearguard.
Kamara made his debut for Dijon off the bench in the Coupe de France defeat to Lille and will hope to earn his first start for the hosts this weekend.
Nimes were due to welcome Pablo Martinez back to the fold for the cup match with Nice, but the defender's knee injury flared up and he is not expected to play a part this weekend either.
Sidy Sarr and Loick Landre also occupy spots in the treatment room for the visitors, who should stick largely with the same XI that gave Monaco a terrific run for their money last weekend.
Baptiste Reynet, Lucas Deaux, Florian Miguel and the ever-dangerous Zinedine Ferhat are all expected to return after being benched or left out for the Coupe de France.
Dijon possible starting lineup:
Racioppi; Boey, Manga, Panzo, Muzinga; Ndong, Lautoa; Balde, Celina, Chouiar; Kamara
Nimes possible starting lineup:
Reynet; Alakouch, Briancon, Miguel, Meling; Cubas, Deaux; Ripart, Benrahou, Ferhat; Kone
We say: Dijon 2-2 Nimes
Both sides ought to be going all guns blazing for a victory in this relegation scrap, which should make for a fascinating 90 minutes for the neutrals. Dijon have the perfect opportunity to finally find their shooting boots on home soil, but Nimes struck three times against Monaco and can also take advantage of their opponents' woes, so we expect the two sides to take home a point apiece - something that will not satisfy either manager.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dijon win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Nimes had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Nimes win was 0-1 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
