Coming off a couple of long tournament runs, Paula Badosa returns to the hard court on Tuesday as she begins her Wuhan Open journey by facing Ajla Tomljanovic in the round of 64.
In her previous tournament, Badosa was knocked out of the US Open quarter-finals, losing in straight sets 2-6 5-7 versus Emma Navarro, while Tomljanovic was beaten in two sets by Beatriz Haddad Maia in the round of 16 at the Hanna Bank Open last month, 3-6 4-6.
Match preview
© Imago
After a disappointing start to the year, Badosa has come on strong down the stretch of 2024 and will seek her first WTA tour victory since defeating Marie Bouzkova to capture the Mubadala Open in July.
Since that triumph, the Spaniard has made the quarter-finals or further in two of her last three events on tour, with her best finish being a semi-final appearance at the Cincinnati Open, where Jessica Pegula ousted her from that tournament.
All year, she has maintained a high first serve percentage of 57.1% while winning 69.2% of her first serves and hitting plenty of aces (227).
The 14th-ranked player coming into this event has always been a huge risk-taker because of her strong two-handed backhand and solid groundstrokes, which led to her hitting countless winners while converting 46.6% of her break points.
Her risky style, though, often comes back to bite the 26-year-old, who has committed over 250 double faults this year (256) while only winning 36.1% of her first return service points.
© Imago
The last few months have been littered with early exits and disappointing performances overall for Ajla Tomljanovic of Australia.
Tomljanovic has won her opening match in her last two tournaments but has not won more than that at a singles event since losing the Rothesay Classic final to Yulia Putintseva in straight sets.
That said, she has not lost her opening match at a tournament since Varvara Gracheva took her out in three sets in the round of 64 at the Cincinnati Open.
In 22 matches played this year, Tomljanovic has won just over half of her service points (55.4%) while boasting a first-serve percentage of 64.7%.
The Aussie's return game has often proven to be her downfall, winning 32.8% of her return games in 2024 and 34.6% of her return points.
Head To Head
Sydney Classic (2022) - Second Round: Badosa wins 6-3 6-4
Australian Open (2022) - Second Round: Badosa wins 6-4 6-0
Western and Southern Open (2022) - Second Round: Tomljanovic wins 6-7 6-0 6-2
In the first meeting between these two, Badosa only hit two double faults, while Tomljanovic had seven in front of the home crowd, with the Spaniard winning 56% of her first serves to claim a comfortable victory.
A few days later, the Spaniard showed how powerful her service game can be at the Australian Open, winning 71% of her first serves for another straight-sets triumph over Tomljanovic.
That summer in Cincinnati, Badosa was her own worst enemy, committing eight double faults and winning just 55% of her first serves, while Tomljanovic won over half of her break point opportunities (7/13) to defeat Badosa in three sets.
We say: Badosa to win in two sets
For all the errors that Badosa is prone to making, her service game and baseline play can often bail her out, and we believe that will be the case in this encounter.
Joel Lefevre
