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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 68.54%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.16%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 2-1 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.
Result | ||
Crawley Town | Draw | Birmingham City |
13.7% ( -0.69) | 17.76% ( 0.25) | 68.54% ( 0.45) |
Both teams to score 56.04% ( -3.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.65% ( -2.93) | 35.34% ( 2.93) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.62% ( -3.32) | 57.37% ( 3.33) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.84% ( -2.88) | 38.15% ( 2.88) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.08% ( -2.88) | 74.92% ( 2.88) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.61% ( -0.67) | 9.38% ( 0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.42% ( -1.6) | 31.58% ( 1.61) |
Score Analysis |
Crawley Town | Draw | Birmingham City |
2-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.9% Total : 13.7% | 1-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.32) 0-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.51) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.18% Total : 17.76% | 0-2 @ 10.02% ( 0.87) 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.97) 0-3 @ 7.91% ( 0.46) 1-3 @ 7.62% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 4.68% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 4.51% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.37) 0-5 @ 2.21% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.3) 1-5 @ 2.13% ( -0.18) 2-5 @ 1.03% ( -0.18) Other @ 4.47% Total : 68.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 63 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 59 |
3 | Wrexham | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 55 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 50 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 48 |
6 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 44 |
7 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 44 |
8 | Reading | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 44 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 44 |
10 | Barnsley | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 43 |
11 | Stevenage | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 40 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 39 |
13 | Blackpool | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 38 |
14 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 37 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 37 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 34 |
17 | Exeter CityExeter | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 32 |
18 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 30 |
19 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 30 |
20 | Bristol Rovers | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
21 | Burton Albion | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 25 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 24 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 23 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 22 |
> League One Full Table |