Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 36

May 8, 2022 at 11.30am UK

Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia, Italy

Spezia
1 - 3
Atalanta

Verde (30')
Bastoni (41'), Maggiore (44')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Muriel (16'), Djimsiti (73'), Pasalic (87')
Malinovskyi (53'), Freuler (57'), Muriel (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Spezia and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

Last Six:

Last Game: Spezia 0-3 Napoli
Sunday, May 22 at 11.30am in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Sampdoria	38	-17	36
16	Spezia	38	-30	36
17	Salernitana	38	-45	31

Atalanta BC

Last Six:

Last Game: Atalanta 0-1 Empoli
Saturday, May 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Fiorentina	38	8	62
8	Atalanta BC	38	17	59
9	Hellas Verona	38	6	53

We said: Spezia 1-2 Atalanta BC

Both teams are capable of scoring from a variety of sources - Atalanta have scored courtesy of the most different players (19) in Serie A this season and Spezia sit fifth in that ranking (15) - so this encounter should not be short of goals. Even though La Dea's morale is at a low ebb, they are generally more at ease on away soil, while their hosts may relax a little too much with safety almost assured. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 73.18%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 10.58%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-3 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Atalanta BC
10.58% ( 0.12)	16.24% ( 0.05)	73.18% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 51.22% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.52% (

0.09)

36.48% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.37% (

0.1)

58.63% (

-0.1)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.05% (

0.27)

43.95% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.91% (

0.23)

80.08% (

-0.22)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.38% (

-0.01)

8.62% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.26% (

-0.04)

29.74% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Spezia 10.58%

Atalanta BC 73.17%

Draw 16.24%

Spezia	Draw	Atalanta BC
2-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) Other @ 2% Total : 10.58%	1-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.98% Total : 16.24%	0-2 @ 11.38% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 9.3% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 7.65% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 5.7% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 4.69% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 2.8% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 2.3% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.02) 0-6 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) 1-6 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 73.17%