Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 37

May 15, 2022 at 5pm UK

San Siro

AC Milan
2 - 0
Atalanta

Leao (56'), Hernandez (75')
Giroud (44'), Kessie (67'), Bennacer (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Koopmeiners (53'), Malinovskyi (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

Last Six:

Last Game: Sassuolo 0-3 AC Milan
Sunday, May 22 at 5pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	AC Milan	38	38	86
2	Inter Milan	38	52	84
3	Napoli	38	43	79

Atalanta BC

Last Six:

Last Game: Atalanta 0-1 Empoli
Saturday, May 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Fiorentina	38	8	62
8	Atalanta BC	38	17	59
9	Hellas Verona	38	6	53

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta BC

Though it ultimately finished 3-2 to Milan in October's reverse fixture - after Atalanta pulled two late goals back to give the scoreline a hint of respectability - this time around, the high stakes could make it a much tighter affair. Indeed, even a single strike could decide the destiny of the points, and the sense of self-belief forged by recent comebacks can help the Rossoneri edge out La Dea and inch closer to the title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Atalanta BC
46.74% ( -0.09)	25.74% ( 0.02)	27.52% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 51.7% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.09% (

-0.01)

51.91% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.34% (

-0.01)

73.66% (

0.01)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.8% (

-0.04)

22.19% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.39% (

-0.06)

55.6% (

0.07)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.45% (

0.05)

33.55% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.81% (

0.06)

70.19% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 46.73%

Atalanta BC 27.52%

Draw 25.74%

AC Milan	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.22% Total : 46.73%	1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.74%	0-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.38% Total : 27.52%