Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 19, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Inter Milan
3 - 0
AC Milan

Martinez (4', 40'), Gosens (82')
Skriniar (50')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hernandez (35'), Tomori (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between Inter Milan and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Inter Milan

Last Six:

Last Game: Inter Milan 3-0 Sampdoria
Sunday, May 22 at 5pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	AC Milan	38	38	86
2	Inter Milan	38	52	84
3	Napoli	38	43	79

AC Milan

Last Six:

Last Game: Sassuolo 0-3 AC Milan
Sunday, May 22 at 5pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	AC Milan	38	38	86
2	Inter Milan	38	52	84
3	Napoli	38	43	79

We said: Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan (Inter win 2-1 on aggregate)

While the away goals rule could play a role in how both sides approach this game - Milan may be happy to sit in and try to strike a blow on the counter - the greater goal threat that Inter pose is set to see them through to the final. A number of options in attack, by contrast with their rivals' recent troubles in that department, may ultimately decide the destiny of this contest in the Nerazzurri's favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.45%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
Inter Milan	Draw	AC Milan
49.14%	22.64%	28.22%

Both teams to score 62.7%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.32%

37.68%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.08%

59.92%

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.35%

15.64%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.33%

44.66%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.33%

25.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.42%

60.58%

Score Analysis

Inter Milan 49.14%

AC Milan 28.22%

Draw 22.64%

Inter Milan	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.4% 1-0 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 6.91% 3-1 @ 5.81% 3-0 @ 4.27% 3-2 @ 3.95% 4-1 @ 2.7% 4-0 @ 1.98% 4-2 @ 1.83% 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 3.84% Total : 49.14%	1-1 @ 10.13% 2-2 @ 6.39% 0-0 @ 4.02% 3-3 @ 1.79% Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.64%	1-2 @ 6.89% 0-1 @ 5.46% 0-2 @ 3.71% 1-3 @ 3.12% 2-3 @ 2.9% 0-3 @ 1.68% 1-4 @ 1.06% 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.41% Total : 28.22%