Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 34

Apr 23, 2022 at 2pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Torino
2 - 1
Spezia

Lukic (4' pen., 69')
Bremer (62')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Manaj (90+7' pen.)
Erlic (3'), Nikolaou (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Torino and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Torino

Last Six:

Last Game: Torino 0-3 Roma
Friday, May 20 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
9	Hellas Verona	38	6	53
10	Torino	38	5	50
11	Sassuolo	38	-2	50

Spezia

Last Six:

Last Game: Spezia 0-3 Napoli
Sunday, May 22 at 11.30am in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Sampdoria	38	-17	36
16	Spezia	38	-30	36
17	Salernitana	38	-45	31

Pitching together two of the lowest-scoring teams outside the bottom three, this fixture is surely bound for a close-fought draw. Even though Spezia are the team to have faced the most shots in Serie A this season, timid Torino have landed only a league-low 97 on target themselves, so a goalfest is not on the cards. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 18.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torino would win this match.

Result
Torino	Draw	Spezia
59.19%	22.06%	18.74%

Both teams to score 52.58%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.48%

45.52%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.15%

67.85%

Torino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.99%

15.01%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.52%

43.48%

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.87%

38.13%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.11%

74.89%

Score Analysis

Torino 59.19%

Spezia 18.74%

Draw 22.06%

Torino	Draw	Spezia
1-0 @ 10.85% 2-0 @ 10.29% 2-1 @ 9.92% 3-0 @ 6.51% 3-1 @ 6.27% 4-0 @ 3.08% 3-2 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 2.97% 4-2 @ 1.43% 5-0 @ 1.17% 5-1 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.53% Total : 59.19%	1-1 @ 10.46% 0-0 @ 5.72% 2-2 @ 4.78% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.06%	0-1 @ 5.52% 1-2 @ 5.05% 0-2 @ 2.66% 1-3 @ 1.62% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.36% Total : 18.74%