Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 37

May 14, 2022 at 5pm UK

Stadio Friuli

Udinese
2 - 3
Spezia

Molina (26'), Mari (90+4')
Nuytinck (18'), Pereyra (72'), Arslan (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Verde (35'), Gyasi (45+3'), Maggiore (47')
Gyasi (19'), Kiwior (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Udinese and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Udinese

Last Six:

Last Game: Salernitana 0-4 Udinese
Sunday, May 22 at 8pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
11	Sassuolo	38	-2	50
12	Udinese	38	3	47
13	Bologna	38	-11	46

Spezia

Last Six:

Last Game: Spezia 0-3 Napoli
Sunday, May 22 at 11.30am in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Sampdoria	38	-17	36
16	Spezia	38	-30	36
17	Salernitana	38	-45	31

Spezia's fight for survival may go down to the final 90 minutes of a testing campaign - depending on the results of their fellow strugglers - as they are likely to return from Friuli empty-handed, given an away record which features just four wins from 18 previous attempts. Also conceding at a rate of over two goals per game on the road, the Aquilotti are set to be denied even a precious point by their hosts, who have improved offensively of late and tend to make the most of home advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 18.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.

Result
Udinese	Draw	Spezia
61.62% ( 0.09)	20.3% ( -0.02)	18.07% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 57.36% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.4% (

0.01)

38.59% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.1% (

0.01)

60.89% (

-0.01)

Udinese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.93% (

0.02)

12.06% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.42% (

0.06)

37.58% (

-0.06)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.22% (

-0.07)

34.77% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.49% (

-0.07)

71.5% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Udinese 61.62%

Spezia 18.07%

Draw 20.3%

Udinese	Draw	Spezia
2-1 @ 9.91% 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.99% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.95% 5-1 @ 1.56% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.98% Total : 61.62%	1-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3%	1-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 18.07%