Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 24

Feb 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
2 - 0
Atalanta

Musso (25' og.), Messias (86')
Leao (28'), Thiaw (65'), Krunic (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Toloi (27'), Gasperini (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Monza 0-1 AC Milan
Saturday, February 18 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Atalanta 1-2 Lecce
Sunday, February 19 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta BC

Atalanta are often more dangerous away from home, especially in big matches due to their proficiency in transition, but they appear to have lost form at a crucial time in the season. Milan, on the other hand, have rediscovered the winning grit that saw them reclaim Serie A's title last season, and we can envisage them edging a tight victory on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Atalanta BC
44.64% ( -0.35)	26.6% ( -0.08)	28.76% ( 0.43)

Both teams to score 49.93% (

0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.41% (

0.51)

54.59% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.07% (

0.43)

75.93% (

-0.43)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.66% (

0.05)

24.34% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.27% (

0.07)

58.73% (

-0.08)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.99% (

0.61)

34% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.31% (

0.65)

70.68% (

-0.65)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 44.64%

Atalanta BC 28.76%

Draw 26.59%

AC Milan	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.56% Total : 44.64%	1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.59%	0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.31% Total : 28.76%