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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 24
Feb 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Atalanta logo

AC Milan
2 - 0
Atalanta

Musso (25' og.), Messias (86')
Leao (28'), Thiaw (65'), Krunic (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Toloi (27'), Gasperini (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Monza 0-1 AC Milan
Saturday, February 18 at 5pm in Serie A

Atalanta BC

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Atalanta 1-2 Lecce
Sunday, February 19 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta BC

 Atalanta are often more dangerous away from home, especially in big matches due to their proficiency in transition, but they appear to have lost form at a crucial time in the season. Milan, on the other hand, have rediscovered the winning grit that saw them reclaim Serie A's title last season, and we can envisage them edging a tight victory on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawAtalanta BC
44.64% (-0.354 -0.35) 26.6% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08) 28.76% (0.433 0.43)
Both teams to score 49.93% (0.496 0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.41% (0.51199999999999 0.51)54.59% (-0.514 -0.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.07% (0.425 0.43)75.93% (-0.42700000000001 -0.43)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.66% (0.051999999999992 0.05)24.34% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.27% (0.074000000000005 0.07)58.73% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.99% (0.60899999999999 0.61)34% (-0.611 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.31% (0.651 0.65)70.68% (-0.65300000000001 -0.65)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 44.64%
    Atalanta BC 28.76%
    Draw 26.59%
AC MilanDrawAtalanta BC
1-0 @ 11.69% (-0.22 -0.22)
2-1 @ 8.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 8.26% (-0.141 -0.14)
3-1 @ 4.2% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.89% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.26% (0.04 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.48% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 1.38% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 44.64%
1-1 @ 12.61% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.28% (-0.167 -0.17)
2-2 @ 4.81% (0.078 0.08)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 26.59%
0-1 @ 8.93% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.8% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 4.82% (0.064 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.45% (0.075 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.73% (0.051 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.73% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 28.76%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Atalanta

AC Milan
70.2%
Draw
17.4%
Atalanta BC
12.4%
161
Head to Head
Aug 21, 2022 7.45pm
Atalanta
1-1
AC Milan
Malinovskyi (29')
Toloi (16'), Hateboer (48'), Djimsiti (78'), de Roon (90+6')
Bennacer (68')
Pioli (23'), Rebic (45+1'), Tonali (75'), Hernandez (78')
May 15, 2022 5pm
AC Milan
2-0
Atalanta
Leao (56'), Hernandez (75')
Giroud (44'), Kessie (67'), Bennacer (90+2')

Koopmeiners (53'), Malinovskyi (87')
Oct 3, 2021 7.45pm
Atalanta
2-3
AC Milan
Zapata (86' pen.), Pasalic (90+4')
de Roon (40')
Calabria (1'), Tonali (43'), Leao (78')
Diaz (42'), Tomori (52'), Messias (85'), Leao (88'), Pioli (90+4')
May 23, 2021 7.45pm
Atalanta
0-2
AC Milan

Freuler (47'), de Roon (69'), Toloi (86')
de Roon (90+1')
Kessie (43' pen., 90+2')
Mandzukic (82'), Krunic (90+1'), Dalot (90+2')
Jan 23, 2021 5pm
AC Milan
0-3
Atalanta

Hernandez (38'), Kessie (51')
Romero (26'), Ilicic (53' pen.), Zapata (77')
Gosens (84')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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