Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 18

Jan 14, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Lecce
2 - 2
AC Milan

Hernandez (3' og.), Baschirotto (23')
Maleh (64')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Leao (58'), Calabria (70')
Calabria (66'), Bennacer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Lecce and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lecce

All competitions

Last Game: Spezia 0-0 Lecce
Sunday, January 8 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Torino
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Curiously, Lecce are one of two sides yet to score during the first 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season; Milan have netted seven times in the same period (the joint-most in Italy's top flight). The hosts cannot afford a slow start on Saturday, though, as their visitors will be fired up by recent setbacks and are likely to come out all guns blazing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
Lecce	Draw	AC Milan
20.16% ( -0.02)	22.6% ( -0.01)	57.25% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 53.25% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.19% (

0.02)

45.81% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.88% (

0.02)

68.12% (

-0.02)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.21% (

-0.01)

36.79% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.42% (

-0.01)

73.58% (

0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.25% (

0.02)

15.75% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.13% (

0.04)

44.87% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Lecce 20.16%

AC Milan 57.25%

Draw 22.6%

Lecce	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.36% ( -0) 2-0 @ 2.9% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.79% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0) 3-0 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.7% Total : 20.16%	1-1 @ 10.71% 0-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.6%	0-1 @ 10.71% 0-2 @ 9.9% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.1% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.82% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.41% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.04% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 57.25%