Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 13

Nov 5, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
2 - 1
Spezia

Hernandez (21'), Giroud (89')
Bennacer (40'), Messias (63'), Giroud (83'), Hernandez (83'), Tonali (90+3')
Giroud (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Maldini (59')
Ampadu (74'), Egill Ellertsson (80'), N'Zola (83'), Caldara (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 4-0 Salzburg
Wednesday, November 2 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Spezia

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Spezia 1-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, October 30 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

There is no reason to think that Spezia will break their duck on the road this time out, as they face a formidable force in the shape of Milan at San Siro. With little to offer up front, the visitors will be overpowered by the Scudetto holders at the other end; keeping the hosts in touch with Napoli at the top of the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 79.05%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 6.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.59%) and 1-0 (10.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.66%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Spezia
79.05% ( -0.02)	14.02%	6.93% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 42.6% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.28% (

0.04)

38.71% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.97% (

0.05)

61.02% (

-0.06)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.15% (

7.85% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.18% (

0.02)

27.82% (

-0.02)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.23% (

0.06)

53.77% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.87% (

0.04)

87.13% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 79.03%

Spezia 6.93%

Draw 14.02%

AC Milan	Draw	Spezia
2-0 @ 13.66% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.59% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0) 4-0 @ 7.38% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.58% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.75% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.33% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.59% 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 79.03%	1-1 @ 6.66% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.51% Total : 14.02%	0-1 @ 2.62% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 6.93%