Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 7

Sep 17, 2022 at 5pm UK

Stadio Alberto Picco

Spezia
2 - 1
Sampdoria

Murillo (12' og.), N'Zola (72')
Bastoni (42'), Kovalenko (59'), Egill Ellertsson (89'), N'Zola (90')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Sabiri (11')
Ferrari (23'), Villar (43'), Leris (69'), Duricic (78'), Murillo (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Spezia and Sampdoria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

Last Six:

Last Game: Napoli 1-0 Spezia
Saturday, September 10 at 2pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Hellas Verona	6	-5	5
16	Spezia	6	-5	5
17	Empoli	6	-2	4

Sampdoria

Last Six:

Last Game: Sampdoria 1-2 AC Milan
Saturday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
18	Cremonese	6	-5	2
19	Sampdoria	6	-8	2
20	Monza	6	-11	1

With only one win between them, confidence is low in both camps. As Spezia (10) and Sampdoria (18) are also two of the three teams with the fewest shots on target this term, expect a low-scoring Ligurian derby in which the spoils are shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 45.6%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 25.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Sampdoria
45.6% ( 1.62)	28.61% ( 0.52)	25.79% ( -2.14)

Both teams to score 42.55% (

-2.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.96% (

-2.7)

63.05% (

2.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.5% (

-2)

82.5% (

2.01)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.27% (

-0.43)

27.73% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.71% (

-0.56)

63.29% (

0.56)

Sampdoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.87% (

-3.36)

41.13% (

3.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.33% (

-3.13)

77.67% (

3.13)

Score Analysis

Spezia 45.6%

Sampdoria 25.79%

Draw 28.6%

Spezia	Draw	Sampdoria
1-0 @ 14.62% ( 1.24) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.69) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.2) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.67% Total : 45.6%	1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 11.4% ( 1.1) 2-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.42) Other @ 0.5% Total : 28.6%	0-1 @ 10.13% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.57) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.35) 0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.24) Other @ 1.24% Total : 25.79%