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Championship header 2

League One
Plymouth Argyle
League One | Gameweek 29
Mar 7, 2023 at 8pm UK
Home Park
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Plymouth
2 - 1
Derby

Wright (59'), Hardie (70' pen.)
Wilson (19'), Matete (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mendez-Laing (17')
Knight (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Plymouth 2-0 Charlton
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Derby County

 Plymouth bounced back from a humiliating defeat at Peterborough by beating Charlton on Saturday, and they will realise three points against Derby in this one would go in a long way in securing their position in the top two. The Rams need to find some consistency if they are to challenge the likes of the Pilgrims and Ipswich for a top-two berth, but we see Warne's men narrowly losing out on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
44.94% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02) 25.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 29.6% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.93% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.36% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)49.64% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.34% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)71.66% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.94% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)22.06% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)55.4% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.19% (0.00099999999999056 0)30.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.92% (0.0019999999999953 0)67.08% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 44.94%
    Derby County 29.6%
    Draw 25.46%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 10.27% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.14% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 7.76% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 3.91% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.74% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.48% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.02% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 44.94%
1-1 @ 12.09%
0-0 @ 6.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.46%
0-1 @ 8% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.12% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 4.71% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.8% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.11%
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 29.6%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Derby

Plymouth Argyle
76.2%
Draw
9.5%
Derby County
14.3%
63
Head to Head
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Derby
2-3
Plymouth
Collins (26'), Mendez-Laing (38')
McGoldrick (57')
Whittaker (56'), Cosgrove (77', 90')
Mumba (34')
Jan 26, 2010 3pm
Plymouth
1-0
Derby
Mackie (82')
Fallon (29'), Sawyer (45')

McEveley (14'), Pearson (38'), Hunt (45'), Savage (78'), Buxton (81')
Aug 22, 2009 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Buxton (40'), Addison (90')
Addison (76')
Judge (17' pen.)
Fletcher (90')
Feb 7, 2009 3pm
Plymouth
0-3
Derby
Hulse (46', 52'), Teale (43')
Oct 18, 2008 3pm
Derby
2-1
Plymouth
Green (52'), Hulse (45')
Gallagher (8')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion2026121732-1512
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012
> League One Full Table


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