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League One
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League One | Gameweek 17
Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Barnsley

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (35' pen., 63'), Forsyth (48')
Collins (17'), Forsyth (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Russell (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Barnsley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 3-3 Horsham
Friday, November 3 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

We said: Derby County 1-1 Barnsley

 Despite both sides finding themselves in and around the playoff places at this early stage, neither are yet to truly kick into gear so far this term, and we do not envisage either team outclassing the other at Pride Park on Saturday and instead opt for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
51.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 24.59% (0.0010000000000012 0) 23.45% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.61% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)50.39% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)72.32% (0.012999999999991 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.62% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.37% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.83%51.17%
Barnsley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.83% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)36.17% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.04% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)72.95% (0.021999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.96%
    Barnsley 23.45%
    Draw 24.58%
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
1-0 @ 11.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.6%
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.25%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 2.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 51.96%
1-1 @ 11.69%
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.13%
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Derby vs Barnsley

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
14.3%
Barnsley
28.6%
7
Head to Head
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Gameweek 34
Barnsley
4-1
Derby
Cole (21', 45+2'), Phillips (33'), Thomas (90+4')
McGoldrick (35')
Jan 8, 2023 12.30pm
Third Round
Derby
3-0
Barnsley
Collins (45+1' pen.), Barkhuizen (60'), Knight (79')
> Preview
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Derby
2-1
Barnsley
McCarthy (8' og.), Mendez-Laing (35')
Cashin (47')
Benson (64')
McCarthy (62')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Derby
2-0
Barnsley
Morrison (22', 47')

Wolfe (7'), Morris (90+4')
> Preview
Nov 3, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Barnsley
2-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (39'), Leya Iseka (50')
Woodrow (26'), Brittain (64'), Andersen (81')
Baldock (24')
Morrison (15'), Buchanan (50')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122
> League One Full Table


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