Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
21.03% ( 0.43) | 23.57% ( 0.36) | 55.4% ( -0.79) |
Both teams to score 51.49% ( -0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.19% ( -0.95) | 48.81% ( 0.95) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.09% ( -0.87) | 70.9% ( 0.87) |
Nantes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.39% ( -0.1) | 37.61% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.61% ( -0.1) | 74.39% ( 0.1) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( -0.63) | 17.47% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.05% ( -1.1) | 47.94% ( 1.1) |
Score Analysis |
Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.61% Total : 21.03% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 10% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 5.82% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 10 | 26 | 32 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 26 |
3 | Marseille | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Lille | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Lyon | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
6 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
7 | Nice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
8 | Lens | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Auxerre | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 16 |
10 | Toulouse | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
11 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 13 |
12 | Brest | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 13 |
14 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
15 | NantesNantes | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
16 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 9 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | -21 | 7 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |