Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 5pm UK

A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia
0 - 5
Sweden

Mets (14')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Gyokeres (18'), Kulusevski (24'), Isak (39'), Quaison (75'), Claesson (90+2')
Hien (21')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Estonia and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Estonia 0-3 Belgium
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	4	6	10
2	Belgium	3	6	7
3	Sweden	3	0	3
4	Estonia	3	-4	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Sweden

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Austria 2-0 Sweden
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	4	6	10
2	Belgium	3	6	7
3	Sweden	3	0	3
4	Estonia	3	-4	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Sweden have won 16 and drawn one versus Estonia in the past, and despite a sluggish start to their Group F campaign they can now make the most of their firepower in Tallinn. Doubts remain over the Blagult's tactical set-up and selections under Janne Andersson, but they have more than enough nous to see off their hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Sweden win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Sweden
39.74% ( -0)	27.94% ( 0.01)	32.32% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 47.49% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.59% (

-0.05)

58.41% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.99% (

-0.04)

79.01% (

0.04)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.3% (

-0.03)

28.7% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.48% (

-0.03)

64.52% (

0.03)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.61% (

-0.03)

33.39% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.98% (

-0.04)

70.02% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Estonia 39.73%

Sweden 32.32%

Draw 27.94%

Estonia	Draw	Sweden
1-0 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.19% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.7% Total : 39.73%	1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.94%	0-1 @ 10.51% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0) Other @ 2.47% Total : 32.32%