Sweden will be confident of recording a win to kick off their June international against a New Zealand side who are going through a transitional period under caretaker management. Gyokeres and Isak should be able to get onto the scoresheet at the Friends Arena and give Anderson's men momentum going into their Euro qualifier with Austria next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 49.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 24.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
Sweden	Draw	New Zealand
49.16% ( -0.72)	26.22% ( 0.17)	24.62% ( 0.55)

Both teams to score 47.9% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.31% (

-0.21)

55.69% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.17% (

-0.17)

76.83% (

0.17)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.3% (

-0.41)

22.7% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.64% (

-0.61)

56.36% (

0.61)

New Zealand Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.96% (

0.39)

38.04% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.19% (

0.37)

74.81% (

-0.37)

Score Analysis

Sweden 49.16%

New Zealand 24.62%

Draw 26.21%

Sweden	Draw	New Zealand
1-0 @ 12.8% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.85% Total : 49.16%	1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.61% Total : 24.62%